Sunday, January 30, 2011

Egypt, the Next Iran?

Riots and protest in Egypt have now gone on for one week, anarchy reigns and the protests have become increasingly anti-American as well as anti-Israel. After continuing to support the Egyptian dictator for 30 years, along with support of their military with 1.3 billion dollars per year; the relative calm in the region is in jeopardy. Double digit inflation, food shortages, high unemployment have led to Egypt's present tenuous situation and it's government's implosion. Mubarak should have taken steps to quell public discord years ago; after 30 years of Mubarak's rule, the Egyptian people have had enough and there is no going back; so Mubarak is finished. And where was the US State Department for the past 30 years?

The situation is dire for the West; Egypt has been a moderate ally in the region; a vital necessity in order to keep the transport of the world's oil supply through the Suez Canal secure. Meanwhile, world oil prices are skyrocketing. Egypt's practice of preventing the flow of so-called Palestinians over their border with Gaza is has fallen, terrorist prisoners have already escaped into Gaza and God knows what else; a terrible development for Israel.

Egypt's army is the only somewhat stabilizing element in the country; not keeping order, but waiting out the situation. There is no moderate or secular movements that has been allowed to foster in in Mubarak's Egypt; none to step up to fill the power vacuum that now exists. Islamist institutions such as the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas are the only ones capable of replacing failed government institutions. The leftist media has whitewashed the Muslim Brotherhood, which is a brutal Islamic supremacist group who were chiefly responsible for the assassination of Anwar Sadat. That as well as the terror attack in Luxor on Nov. 17, 1997, when six men dressed in black attacked and killed sixty-two tourists, including children. The Muslim Brotherhood has now rallied behind retired diplomat Mohamed ElBaradei to lead possible talks with the army on organizing a handover of power to a national unity coalition.

Expect Egypt like Lebanon to move towards Islamist governments that support terror; Jordan could be next in line. Israel has for now keep silent as it' situation is becoming more dire as pro western Middle East countries are failing. According to the Daily Telegraph, the Obama administration has "secretly backed" figures behind the Egyptian uprising who for three years have been planning a “regime change.” Why such a gamble when the eventual outcome could lead to an Islamic government? This from a President who preferred not to "meddle" during last years Iranian uprising challenging the legitimacy of Iran's Islamic system of rule.

Egypt's opposition leader ElBaradei, who until recently had been under house arrest, now has announced that he had been given a mandate to make contact with the army and build a new government in Egypt. Not surprisingly, the Muslim Brotherhood has announced that they now support ElBardei. The situation here is eerily close to what we faced with the fall of the Shaw of Iran under Carter.

Islam is based upon the Trilogy—Koran, Sira and Hadith. Islam is a political ideology dividing the world into Muslims and unbelievers, kafirs. In spite of what George W. Bush and others may believe; most of the people of the Middle East are not "yearning" for democracy. There is a semblance of democracy in Iraq, but likely will last only as long as our troops remain. The Palestinians in Gaza, when given the choice voted in Hamas, Lebanon is now controlled by Hezbollah and Egypt's odds are that will follow the same path. At least with Mubarak, the devil we knew was better than the possible alternative. The Muslim Brotherhood is now closer to power with the backing of ElBardei. The Brotherhood's slogan? "Islam is the solution." The Muslim Brotherhood spawned Hamas; if they are now to control Egypt, why should we expect the result to be anything more favorable? Meaning, Egypt is now likely to become an authoritarian military regime, or a Radical Islamist regime. Egypt's change in leadership could mean an end to Egypt's peace treaty with Israel as well as a new phase in the United States' war against the jihadists.